Key points
- Bitcoin traded near $81,019 on Kraken at 20:51 UTC, up 0.3% from its UTC open of $80,801, after a high of $81,709 in the 20:00 UTC hour.
- The level that matters is still $84,250, about $3,230 above the price; no hourly close on Wednesday came near it.
- A drop back through Wednesday’s $80,282 low would undo the Fed bounce; only hourly closes above $84,250 would change the picture.
The Fed did nothing, and two of its officials wanted more. Bitcoin rose on the news, then thought better of it.
From a low of $80,282 in the 16:00 UTC hour, bitcoin climbed to an hourly close of $81,524 at 20:00 UTC and a high of $81,709 just after. By 20:51 UTC it was back near $81,019 on Kraken. Coinbase showed $80,994, with a 24-hour range of $80,271 to $81,715.
Ether rose 0.2% to about $2,351 and Solana 0.8% to about $102.07. XRP slipped 0.3% to about $1.326.
What drove the session
The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4%. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted against, preferring a quarter-point increase, the Fed’s statement said. It also said “Inflation remains elevated” and that economic activity “is expanding at a strong pace”.
Chair Kevin Warsh said what the Fed has done “is starting to work some”, noting that credit conditions “tightened for some businesses and households”, AP reported. Traders still put the odds of a December hike near 85%, according to CME FedWatch data cited by AP.
The bond market did the swinging. The two-year Treasury yield jumped above 4.79% from 4.70% on the dissents, then fell as low as 4.69% while Warsh spoke, AP said. The 10-year yield ended at 5.02%, from 4.99%, and Brent crude rose 2% to $111.64.
Stocks barely moved. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,743.98, the Dow 97 points to 52,475.10 and the Nasdaq 0.3% to 26,549.85, per AP and Yahoo Finance data.
Bitcoin’s rise ran from the decision at 18:00 UTC through Warsh’s news conference and into the close. It was a sprint up a stairwell that ended back on the same landing.
Crypto stocks did better. Strategy rose 2.7% to $145.16 after shareholders voted to move to daily dividends on its preferred stock. Coinbase gained 0.8% to $162.32 and BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF, IBIT, 1.0% to $46.14, according to Yahoo Finance data.
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $176 million on Tuesday, as Tuesday’s ETF Desk showed. Wednesday’s figures were not yet out.
Put simply, the Fed paused but did not sound finished, and with the 10-year near 5%, bitcoin has strong competition for cash. Our guide explains how bond yields affect bitcoin.
Derivatives
Leverage left the market. Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $765 million at 20:51 UTC, down from about $814 million on Tuesday evening, so the post-Fed rise came with fewer open bets, not more. Funding was close to flat at 0.0052% per eight hours.
Deribit’s DVOL index held near 37.2 to 37.4. Options traders did not treat the decision as a big event.
Friday’s 30 Oct options hold about 135,900 BTC of open interest, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.53. The $95,000 call remains the largest line, at about 19,950 BTC.
The levels
The level to watch is still $84,250, about $3,230 away.
Above, Wednesday’s $81,709 high is the first hurdle, then $84,250.
Below, $81,000 is where bitcoin sits now. Then Wednesday’s $80,282 low, $80,000 and Tuesday’s $79,379. Under that, the chart is thin down to about $76,200, the 18 Sep low.
The alternative read: the round trip is the story. Bitcoin rose on the decision but could not hold it, and with traders still expecting a December hike, Thursday’s US inflation figures could matter more than Wednesday’s pause.
Thursday brings US GDP and PCE inflation data, the ECB decision, and Strategy and Coinbase results after the US close; see this week’s calendar. For the morning view, see Wednesday’s First Print; for Tuesday’s session, Tuesday’s Market Read.
As of 20:51 UTC, BTC is trading near $81,020.
Related: Thursday's First Print: bitcoin back under $80,000 as Seoul opened
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.