Key points
- Bitcoin traded near $80,681 on Kraken at 21:00 UTC, up 0.8% from its UTC open of $80,002, after a low of $79,379 in the 10:00 UTC hour.
- The level that matters is still $84,250, about $3,570 above the price; no hourly close on Tuesday came near it.
- A slip back under $80,000 and then the day’s $79,379 low would undo the move; only hourly closes above $84,250 would change the picture.
The Nasdaq rose 1.2% on AI stocks. This time bitcoin rose with it.
At the US close at 20:00 UTC, bitcoin stood at $80,707 on Kraken, about $820 above Monday’s close of $79,888. Coinbase showed $80,678 at 21:00 UTC, with a 24-hour range of $79,366 to $80,725.
Ether gained 0.9% to about $2,341 and XRP 1.0% to about $1.319. Solana was flat at about $100.90.
What drove the session
Chip stocks did the lifting. Broadcom rose 4% after announcing a financing deal giving Anthropic access to its AI chips, AP reported. The S&P 500 gained 45.83 points, or 0.6%, to 7,722.60, within 1.2% of its record, though most of its stocks fell.
The Dow edged up 15.99 points to 52,377.57 and the Nasdaq added 308.43 to 26,477.81. Energy shares fell most as crude eased with attention on Middle East peace talks, Reuters reported.
Bitcoin’s low came in the European morning, at $79,379 in the 10:00 UTC hour, on light volume. Its busiest hour on Kraken was 14:00 UTC, just after the opening bell, when about 220 BTC changed hands and it closed at $80,234. It then rose steadily into the evening.
Tech pulled, and bitcoin let itself be pulled.
Crypto stocks rose with it. Coinbase gained 0.9% to $161.09, Strategy 1.1% to $141.40 and BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF, IBIT, 1.1% to $45.70, according to Yahoo Finance data. Robinhood reported after the bell, and Robinhood’s crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier.
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million on Monday, all of it into IBIT, as Monday’s ETF Desk showed. Tuesday’s figures were not yet out.
The Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting and announces its decision on Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.99%.
Put simply, with safe bonds paying almost 5%, bitcoin needs a reason to be held, and a softer tone from the Fed could provide one. Our guide explains how bond yields affect bitcoin.
Derivatives
The move was spot-led. Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $814 million at 21:00 UTC, down from about $829 million on Monday evening, so the rise came without new leverage. Funding was barely positive at 0.0033% per eight hours on Deribit and 0.01% on OKX.
Deribit’s DVOL index sat between about 37.3 and 37.6, a little lower than Monday’s 38.4 to 38.7. Options traders are not bracing for a big Fed move.
Friday’s 30 Oct options hold about 135,400 BTC of open interest, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.54. The $95,000 call is still the largest line at about 19,950 BTC; the biggest put is the $70,000 strike, at about 4,350 BTC.
The levels
The level to watch is still $84,250, about $3,570 away.
Below, $80,000 is the first test, back to being a floor for now. Then Tuesday’s $79,379 low, Monday’s $79,265 and Saturday’s $79,121. Under that, the chart is thin down to about $76,200, the 18 Sep low.
Above, Tuesday’s $80,721 high is the first hurdle, then Saturday’s early high near $81,100, then $84,250.
The alternative read: this was a quiet day, not a turn. Volume was light, open interest fell rather than rose and the gain is less than 1%, so a hawkish Fed on Wednesday could push bitcoin back below $80,000 just as easily.
For the morning view, see Tuesday’s First Print; for Monday’s session, Monday’s Market Read; and for the Fed, ECB and earnings dates, this week’s calendar.
As of 21:00 UTC, BTC is trading near $80,680.
Related: Wednesday's First Print: bitcoin's first higher close in four days
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.