Key points

  • Bitcoin closed Tuesday at $80,800.9 on Kraken, up from $80,001.9. That ended three straight days of lower daily closes.
  • Asia added a little. Bitcoin touched $81,109.1 in the 03:00 UTC hour as the Kospi jumped 5.6% on SK Hynix’s record profit, AP reported.
  • The map: $81,199.7, Tuesday’s high, then $84,250 overhead; $80,500.1, the overnight low, then $79,378.5 below.

The losing streak is over. The range is not.

Bitcoin traded near $80,860 on Kraken at 04:49 UTC, about 0.1% above its UTC open of $80,800.9. Coinbase showed $80,854. Ether was near $2,353, solana near $101.96 and XRP near $1.328.

Seoul sprints, bitcoin walks

The Kospi was up 5.6% at 5,952.41 in early trading, AP reported. SK Hynix jumped 7% after posting a record quarterly operating profit of 83.3 trillion won, about $62.8 billion.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.3% to 64,094.51. Shanghai edged 0.5% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.7%, according to the same report.

Bitcoin did join in this time, if only just. Tuesday’s First Print had it sliding to $79,512 while Seoul rallied.

The turn came after the US close. In the 21:00 UTC hour on Tuesday, bitcoin spiked to $81,199.7 on 378.5 BTC of Kraken volume, more than three times any of the four hours before it.

It gave most of that back within the hour. the US-close Market Read tracked the Nasdaq’s 1.2% gain on Tuesday.

Asia was thinner. Kraken traded fewer than 30 BTC in each of the 02:00, 03:00 and 04:00 UTC hours, even as the price pushed to $81,109.1.

That is a drift, not a breakout.

The wider crypto market still lost 1.14% of its value over 24 hours, CoinGecko data show, and bitcoin’s share held at 59.4%.

Everyone is waiting for one man

The Fed announces its decision at 18:00 UTC. A hold is widely expected after last month’s hike, AP said.

Treasuries barely moved. The 10-year yield edged down to 4.99% from 5.00%, and the dollar rose to 157.99 yen, according to AP. Brent crude added 0.4% to $109.82 a barrel.

JPMorgan analysts told clients they expect at least two hawkish dissents, Reuters reported. They wrote that markets will focus on how Chair Kevin Warsh frames the decision.

how bond yields affect bitcoin explains why a 10-year yield near 5% weighs on an asset that pays nothing.

Leverage keeps leaving

Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $802 million, down from about $829 million a day earlier.

Put simply, open interest is the value of futures contracts still open. A smaller number on a firmer price means traders are closing bets, not building them.

Funding stayed small and positive: 0.009% per eight hours on Deribit, and 0.01% on OKX for the current period and the last settlement.

Deribit’s DVOL index read 37.56, inside a 37.40 to 37.69 band over six hours and below Tuesday morning’s 38.35. Options traders are paying less for protection on Fed day, not more.

Respect the range until 18:30 UTC.

Chart to watch

  • Kraken’s daily closes: Tuesday’s $80,800.9 broke a run of three lower closes that started from 23 Oct’s $81,086.2. A close above $81,086.2 would erase the slide.
  • Overhead: $81,199.7, Tuesday’s spike high, then $84,250, which bitcoin has not held on an hourly close since 21 Oct.
  • Below: $80,500.1, the overnight low, then $79,378.5, Tuesday’s low. A sustained break of $79,378.5 would put Saturday’s $79,120.8 back in play, and $78,000 beyond it, the strike where Friday’s expiring options pay holders least, by our count in our week-ahead calendar.

On the calendar (UTC / CET)

  • Wed 28 Oct, 14:00 UTC (15:00 CET): Strategy’s special meeting on its preferred stocks. 18:00 UTC (19:00 CET): Fed decision; Chair Warsh’s press conference at 18:30 UTC (19:30 CET). Alphabet and Microsoft report after the US close.
  • Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 UTC (13:30 CET): US third-quarter GDP advance estimate and September PCE. The ECB decides, usually at 13:15 UTC (14:15 CET). Amazon, Strategy and Coinbase report after the US close.
  • Fri 30 Oct, 08:00 UTC (09:00 CET): Deribit monthly options expiry. The Bank of Japan also announces its decision.

As of 04:49 UTC (05:49 CET), bitcoin was trading near $80,860 on Kraken and ether near $2,353. This is market commentary, not financial advice.

Related: The US-close Market Read: AI stocks lifted the Nasdaq and bitcoin climbed back above $80,000

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.