Key points

  • Bitcoin closed Wednesday at $81,287.1 on Kraken, a second higher close in a row, after the Fed held rates.
  • It gave that back in Asia. In the 01:00 UTC hour it dropped from $81,010.8 to $79,892.4, and it touched $79,614.8 an hour later.
  • The map: $80,281.8, Wednesday’s low, then $81,709.1 overhead; $79,614.8, the overnight low, then $79,120.8 below.

The Fed did not sink bitcoin. The morning after did.

Bitcoin traded near $80,026 on Kraken at 04:51 UTC, about 1.6% below its UTC open of $81,287.1. Coinbase showed $80,009. Ether was near $2,316, down from $2,357 at the open, with solana near $100.02 and XRP near $1.294.

A good night, then a bad hour

last night’s Market Read had bitcoin climbing to $81,709.1 after the Fed held its rate at 3.75% to 4%, with two officials voting for a hike.

It held most of that into midnight UTC. Then came the 01:00 UTC hour, about an hour after Seoul’s market opened.

Bitcoin fell more than $1,100 in that hour on 135.9 BTC of Kraken volume. The next hour traded 156.3 BTC, about as much as the 20:00 UTC hour that followed the Fed’s decision.

The selling started in Asia, CoinDesk reported. Samsung’s shares fell more than 5% after its chip division’s quarterly operating profit, 106.5 trillion won, came in just under the 108.5 trillion won analysts expected. The Kospi fell more than 2% and Nasdaq futures 1.4%, the same report said.

Alphabet had already dropped about 10% in after-hours trading on Wednesday, after revenue of $127.6 billion missed the $128.2 billion estimate, TokenPost reported.

That is the timing. Whether the chip sell-off moved bitcoin, or simply arrived at the same hour, the tape cannot say.

The longs paid

Crypto futures saw $356 million in liquidations over 24 hours, $205 million of it from long positions, according to market data cited by CoinDesk.

Put simply, a liquidation is a forced sale. When a leveraged bet loses enough, the exchange closes it, and that selling can push the price further.

Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest fell to about $747 million, from about $802 million on Wednesday morning. Funding barely registered: 0.0019% per eight hours on Deribit, and 0.0039% on OKX for the current period after 0.01% at the last settlement.

Deribit’s DVOL index read 36.83, down from 37.56 a day earlier, after touching 38.27 in the hours around the drop. Options traders are not paying up for protection.

Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market held at 59.4%, CoinGecko data show.

Watch the $79,614.8 low, not the headlines.

Chart to watch

  • Kraken’s daily closes: $80,800.9 on Tuesday, $81,287.1 on Wednesday. A close back above $81,287.1 would undo the Asian session; a close below $80,001.9, Monday’s, would mark the lowest close since at least 23 Oct.
  • Overhead: $81,709.1, the post-Fed high, then $84,250, which bitcoin has not held on an hourly close since 21 Oct.
  • Below: $79,614.8, the overnight low, then $79,120.8, Saturday’s low. A sustained break would bring $78,000 into view, the strike where Friday’s expiring options pay holders least, by our count in our week-ahead calendar.

On the calendar (UTC / CET)

  • Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 UTC (13:30 CET): US third-quarter GDP advance estimate and September PCE inflation. The ECB decides, usually at 13:15 UTC (14:15 CET). Amazon, Strategy and Coinbase report after the US close; Strategy’s call is at 21:00 UTC (22:00 CET).
  • Fri 30 Oct, 08:00 UTC (09:00 CET): Deribit monthly options expiry. The Bank of Japan also announces its decision, and Brazil’s deadline for crypto firms to apply for authorisation falls the same day.

how bond yields affect bitcoin explains why a hawkish Fed weighs on an asset that pays no interest. For Wednesday’s set-up, see Wednesday’s First Print.

As of 04:51 UTC (05:51 CET), bitcoin was trading near $80,026 on Kraken and ether near $2,316. This is market commentary, not financial advice.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.