Key points
- US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, each a tenth above the forecasts CoinDesk cited.
- Bitcoin traded from $74,805 down to $73,400 on Kraken inside the 13:30 UTC candle, a few dollars under Sunday night’s $73,444 low.
- The level that would invalidate the recovery is $73,400; bitcoin was back near $74,200 by 14:43 UTC.
The print came in hot. Bitcoin’s reaction did not last.
The core number is the one that matters this afternoon. In Waller’s speech this morning, the Fed governor said that if October looked like the past two readings, “with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher”, a 50 basis point hike should be considered. Core rose 0.3%, as it did in August and September.
The print
BLS said the all-items index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis after 0.6% in September. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase.
Food rose 0.5%. Energy rose 0.7%, after a 5.2% jump in September.
Within core, recreation rose 0.8% and motor vehicle insurance 0.7%. Used cars and trucks fell 1.2%.
There is again no 12-month rate. BLS did not collect October 2025 data during the lapse in appropriations, so it cannot publish yearly changes for most series, as this morning’s First Print flagged. The monthly numbers did all the work.
How bitcoin traded it
On Kraken’s 15-minute book, bitcoin opened the 13:30 UTC candle at $74,295, spiked to $74,805, then fell to $73,400 before closing that quarter-hour at $73,811 on about 144 BTC, the busiest 15 minutes of the session. The next candle sagged to $73,572.
Then the selling dried up. By the 14:30 UTC candle the price had climbed back to $74,232, and Kraken’s last trade at 14:43 UTC was $74,243.
Ether took the harder hit. It fell from about $2,096 to $2,010 in the same candle, a drop of roughly 4%, and was near $2,079 at 14:43 UTC.
Bonds moved more than bitcoin. Yahoo Finance data put the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.97% at 14:28 UTC, up about 11 basis points on the day, and CoinDesk reported the 2-year yield up 14 basis points to 4.69% shortly after the release. The Nasdaq was down about 0.6% and the S&P 500 about 0.5% after the US open, while gold fell about $59 to near $4,055.
Put simply, a higher 2-year yield means traders now expect the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, which makes holding assets that pay no yield, such as bitcoin, more expensive. Our explainer on how bond yields affect bitcoin has the longer version.
Derivatives
Leverage barely changed. Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual had about $696 million of open interest at 14:43 UTC, and funding was 0.0039% per eight hours, close to flat.
Options did not panic either. Deribit’s DVOL index, a gauge of 30-day implied volatility, slipped from 39.7 to 39.4 during the release hour and was near 39.5 an hour later.
The levels
The level to watch is $73,400, today’s low. A sustained break below it would leave Sunday night’s $73,444 low behind and bring the 200-day average near $73,150 into view.
Above, $74,800 is the first test: it is where the CPI spike topped out. Monday’s $75,500 high comes next.
The other reading
The calm in options is open to another reading.
The Fed’s December meeting is still four weeks out, and November CPI is due on 10 Dec, the day after the decision is expected. A market that has already priced a hike can afford to shrug at one more hot month. It may be less relaxed if traders start pricing 50.
As of 14:43 UTC, BTC is trading near $74,200. Not financial advice.
Related: On 12 Nov bitcoin fell to $71,360, its lowest since August, as Nvidia's chief executive resigned
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.