First Print 11 Nov: bitcoin's lowest close since August

Key points

Bitcoin closed Tuesday at $73,700.3 on Kraken, its lowest daily close since 20 Aug, after sliding to $72,584.6 in the 17:00 UTC hour, a few hours after a hotter US inflation report.
The close held above the 200-day average, near $73,137 on our count of Kraken daily closes. Bitcoin has not closed below that line since 18 Aug.
Options barely repriced. Deribit’s DVOL was about 39.6 at 04:00 UTC, against 39.4 before the data. A daily close under $73,137 would be the first break of the 200-day in almost three months.

The low broke. The line did not.

Tuesday’s CPI read showed bitcoin dipping to $73,400 on the release and climbing back. The recovery did not last. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and core prices 0.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, and the afternoon belonged to the sellers.

Kraken’s candle ran from $75,253.1 at the open to $72,584.6 at the low, a drop of about 3.5%, before closing at $73,700.3. Coinbase showed $73,687.3 at 04:46 UTC.

A line that matters because people watch it

Moving averages do not move markets on their own. They matter because so many desks draw the same one.

Put simply, the 200-day moving average is the mean of the last 200 daily closing prices, a slow line that tells you where the market has spent most of the past six and a half months.

Bitcoin spent Tuesday afternoon below it and Tuesday night above it. That is the distinction a daily close is there to make.

Asia did not test it again. The overnight range was $73,113.6 to $73,924.5, and the price was $73,692.4 at 04:46 UTC, flat on the UTC day.

The hourly closes since midnight have all sat between $73,444 and $73,672. Sellers had their afternoon. Buyers have not had a morning yet.

Leverage stayed home

Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $688 million at 04:46 UTC, down from about $698 million before the inflation data. The slide did not flush the book, and it did not fill it either.

Funding was about 0.0039% per eight hours on Deribit and 0.01% on OKX, positive and small.

DVOL, Deribit’s 30-day implied volatility gauge, rose to about 40.6 in the 16:00 UTC hour and gave it back within twelve hours. Traders paid a little more for protection during the slide and stopped paying once it ended.

Friday’s options are leaning the same way they were on Tuesday morning. The 13NOV26 expiry holds about 33,400 BTC, with a put/call ratio near 0.58.

Calls at $81,000 (about 8,300 BTC) and $84,000 (about 5,230 BTC) still dominate, far above spot. The largest puts are at $72,000, about 2,080 BTC, and $68,000, about 1,940 BTC.

Ether was near $2,065.5 on Kraken, having touched $2,002 on Tuesday. Solana was near $82.98 and XRP near $1.0545.

Watch the close, not the wick.

Chart to watch

Kraken daily candles since August with the 200-day average: Tuesday’s long lower wick dipped about $550 under the line, and the close finished about $560 above it.
Below: the 200-day near $73,137, then Tuesday’s $72,584.6 low. A daily close under both would be the first since 18 Aug.
Above: $75,323.5, Tuesday’s high, then the 50-day average near $81,370 and $84,250, the line this desk uses for the Brief mood, about $10,550 away.

On the calendar (UTC / CET)

Wed 11 Nov: Veterans Day, a US federal holiday. MSCI is due to publish the final list of companies caught by MSCI’s non-operating company screens with its November index review. The Block has named Strategy and Metaplanet among firms flagged in an earlier MSCI simulation.
Fri 13 Nov, 08:00 UTC (09:00 CET): Deribit weekly bitcoin options expiry, about 33,400 BTC of open interest at our read.
Fri 13 Nov, 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET): US October producer prices. For the backdrop going into Tuesday, see Tuesday’s First Print.

As of 04:46 UTC (05:46 CET), bitcoin was trading near $73,690 on Kraken and ether near $2,066.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.