First Print 10 Nov: CPI day, bitcoin near $74,600

Key points

Bitcoin traded near $74,590 on Kraken and Coinbase at 04:43 UTC, inside the $73,444 to $75,500 range it has held since Sunday night’s flush.
US October consumer prices land at 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET) without the usual 12-month rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics cannot compute it because it never collected October 2025 prices.
Options are getting cheaper into the print. Deribit’s DVOL fell to about 39.4 from 41.2 on Monday morning. A daily close below $73,444 would be the first sign that the floor is giving way.

The headline number is missing. The market is calm about it.

Monday’s First Print left bitcoin just above its 200-day average after a $2,000 drop in a quarter of an hour. Monday was quieter: Kraken’s candle ran from $73,601.8 to $75,500 and closed at $75,253.1.

The Asian session gave some of it back. Bitcoin slipped to $74,278.1 in the 03:00 UTC hour and was near $74,593 at 04:43 UTC, down about 0.9% on the UTC day. Coinbase showed $74,591.5.

An inflation report with a hole in it

Most people meet inflation as one number: prices up X% on a year ago. September’s was 3.7%, according to Investing.com.

October’s report will not have one. The BLS says it will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 wherever October 2025 data are missing. Those prices went uncollected during last year’s government shutdown and were carried forward from September.

That leaves the month-on-month change to do all the work. Economists expect consumer prices rose 0.3% in October and core prices, which leave out food and energy, 0.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus cited by CoinDesk. September’s figures were 0.6% and 0.3%.

A softer month would be the obvious relief. A 0.4% core print would be harder to explain away with no yearly figure beside it. Desks will build their own annual numbers from the index levels, and they will not all build them the same way.

Put simply, implied volatility is the price of options expressed as the size of move traders are paying to insure against, and DVOL is Deribit’s 30-day gauge of it for bitcoin.

The insurance is getting cheaper

DVOL peaked near 41.2 in the 07:00 UTC hour on Monday and has drifted lower since, to about 39.4 at 04:00 UTC on Tuesday. Traders are paying less for protection hours before a data release that has rattled crypto before.

Leverage is steady. Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $698 million at 04:45 UTC, almost exactly where it was on Monday morning. Funding was about 0.0058% per eight hours on Deribit and 0.006% for OKX’s current period, positive but small.

The Friday book has thinned on the downside. The 13NOV26 expiry held about 32,900 BTC of open interest, with a put/call ratio near 0.60. Puts at $74,000 held about 2,160 BTC, half the 4,192 BTC this week’s calendar counted on Sunday.

Calls still dominate that book. The $81,000 strike carries about 8,300 BTC and $84,000 about 5,270 BTC, both far above spot.

Ether was near $2,116 on Kraken, above Monday’s $2,080.85 low. Solana was near $85.71 and XRP near $1.091.

Respect the print, not the silence before it.

Chart to watch

Kraken hourly candles since Sunday 21:00 UTC: one sharp drop to $73,444.3, then a $73,600 to $75,500 band, with every rally above $75,300 sold since Monday evening.
Below: $73,444, Sunday’s low, then the 200-day average near $73,156. A daily close under both would leave the August low of $73,001.1 as the last marker.
Above: $75,500, Monday’s high, then the 50-day average near $81,630 and $84,250, the line this desk uses for the Brief mood, about $9,650 away.

On the calendar (UTC / CET)

Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET): US October CPI, month-on-month only for most series. US stocks open at 14:30 UTC (15:30 CET).
Wed 11 Nov: Veterans Day, a US federal holiday.
Fri 13 Nov, 08:00 UTC (09:00 CET): Deribit weekly bitcoin options expiry, about 32,900 BTC of open interest at our read.
Fri 13 Nov, 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET): US October producer prices. For how rates feed through to crypto, see how bond yields affect bitcoin.

As of 04:43 UTC (05:43 CET), bitcoin was trading near $74,590 on Kraken and ether near $2,116.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.