At a glance
– Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in London on Tuesday that he would support a 25 basis point increase in the Fed’s policy rate at the December meeting even if October’s inflation figures improve.
– If core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, he said, a 50 basis point rise “should be considered”. Futures moved to price the December hike almost fully, and bitcoin slipped to about $74,000.
What Waller said
Waller spoke at the Bank of England Watchers Conference, an event our this week’s calendar had down for 09:00 UTC (10:00 CET). He opened by explaining why he voted to hold at the October meeting, where two officials wanted a hike, and then explained why he does not intend to do so again.
“While I am hoping for an improvement over September, even if this occurs, I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC’s policy rate at our December meeting,” his prepared text reads.
It is unusual to say that on CPI morning. It is more unusual to say it so plainly.
“Let’s just say it. September’s inflation data were bad,” he added, pointing to the Fed’s preferred gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
The numbers he cited are worth setting out:
- PCE inflation: 0.5% in September alone, 3.7% over 12 months.
- Core PCE, excluding food and energy: 0.3% in September, 3.1% over 12 months.
- The Fed’s target: 2%.
The line for 50
The part traders will remember is the conditional. If October CPI looks like the past two monthly readings, “with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher”, Waller said a half-point rise should be on the table, because “hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk”.
Here is why that matters for this afternoon. As this morning’s First Print noted, economists polled by Dow Jones expect core CPI to rise 0.2% on the month. Waller has, in effect, put his 50 basis point trigger one tenth of a point above consensus.
The CPI report is due at 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET), and it will carry no 12-month rate this time, so the monthly core figure will do all the work.
What the market did
Rate futures moved quickly. The probability of a quarter-point December hike rose from 76.3% to 96.3% after the speech, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Cointelegraph. CoinDesk reported that traders were pricing a 25 basis point move on 9 December, which would take the target range to 4% to 4.25% from 3.75% to 4% today.
Bitcoin went the way rate-sensitive assets usually go.
On Kraken, it opened the 09:00 UTC hour at $74,620 and traded as low as $74,085 within it, then dipped to $74,020 in the following hour. It was about $74,118 at 10:48 UTC, roughly 1.5% below where it stood 24 hours earlier. Ether fared slightly worse, down about 2.2% to $2,086.
That is a small move for a governor all but committing to a hike. My reading is that much of it was already priced; the bigger surprise was the 50 basis point condition, and that has not been tested yet.
For the mechanics of why higher policy rates tend to weigh on bitcoin, through real yields and the dollar, see our guide on how bond yields affect bitcoin.
My base case: the pre-announced hike
I will call it the pre-announced hike.
One governor is not the committee, and Waller said his views are his own. But when a Fed governor commits to a December rise before seeing the data, it is more likely than not that the debate in December is about size, not direction. A hike that is fully priced is, by itself, a smaller shock to bitcoin than one that arrives unannounced.
What would change my mind
Two things. A core CPI reading of 0.3% or more this afternoon would put a half-point move into play, and that is not priced. In that case I would expect the pressure on bitcoin to widen rather than fade.
The other is the opposite: a soft core number, 0.1% or lower, with other officials pushing back on Waller in the days ahead. That would turn the pre-announced hike into a debated one, and the odds would come back down.
The bottom line: Waller has made a December hike the default and set a public line, core CPI near 0.3%, for doubling it; bitcoin’s modest dip says the first was expected and the second is not yet.
— Alasdair
Data: Federal Reserve Board, Governor Waller’s speech text (10 Nov 2026); CME FedWatch via Cointelegraph; CoinDesk; Kraken XBT/USD and ETH/USD hourly candles and ticker, 08:00–10:48 UTC, 10 Nov 2026. Not financial advice.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.