Key points

  • Bitcoin closed Sunday at $80,048.5 on Kraken, its weakest daily close since 17 Sep. Asia’s Monday session took it to $79,265.0 in the 03:00 UTC hour before it climbed back near $80,000 by 04:53 UTC.
  • The drop met no forced exit in the derivatives book: Deribit open interest slipped to about $845 million and funding stayed barely positive.
  • The map: $80,849.9, the past day’s high, then $82,500 and $84,250 overhead; $79,265.0 and Saturday’s $79,120.8 below.

Saturday’s low still stands. Sunday’s close is the number that stings.

Bitcoin changed hands near $79,997 on Kraken at 04:53 UTC, almost flat on its UTC open of $80,048.7 after a round trip through the Asian morning. Coinbase showed $79,984. Ether was near $2,318, solana near $101.16 and XRP near $1.287.

The close tells the story

Sunday’s daily candle on Kraken closed at $80,048.5. You have to go back to 17 Sep, when bitcoin closed at $76,354.8, to find a weaker one.

Intraday, the week is no worse. Saturday’s flush printed $79,120.8, and Monday’s low of $79,265.0 did not reach it; Saturday’s Market Read covers that slide.

The selling came in a cluster. Kraken’s 23:00 UTC hour on Sunday traded 192.1 BTC, the busiest hour since Saturday evening, and the 01:00 UTC hour added 173.5 BTC as the price fell to $79,300.1.

That timing lines up with Asia’s open. South Korea’s Kospi lost 1% once Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month forecast for the index by a quarter, CoinDesk reported, and chipmakers dragged on Japan’s Nikkei.

Oil offered a little relief. Brent fell about 2% from a six-month high to around $114 a barrel, according to the same report.

The bigger weight sits on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve announces its decision at 18:00 UTC (19:00 CET), and CoinDesk said traders are watching Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for any hint of a December hike. how bond yields affect bitcoin explains why higher rates weigh on an asset with no yield.

Derivatives shrugged

Funding stayed small and positive. Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual showed 0.0018% per eight hours at 04:53 UTC, and OKX 0.0058% for the current period after a last settlement of 0.007%.

Put simply, funding is the fee that holders of perpetual futures pay each other to keep the contract near the spot price, and at these levels longs are paying almost nothing to stay in.

Deribit perpetual open interest was about $845 million, down from about $851 million on Saturday evening. Some leverage left; there was no stampede.

Implied volatility stayed asleep. Deribit’s DVOL index read 38.3, inside the 37.5 to 38.9 range it has held since Saturday morning.

Options traders still lean the other way from the tape. Friday’s monthly Deribit expiry is worth about $10.9 billion by our Sunday count, and its biggest strike is the $95,000 call, as our week-ahead calendar laid out.

Keep position sizes small until Wednesday.

Chart to watch

  • Kraken’s daily closes since mid-September: Sunday’s $80,048.5 is the lowest since 17 Sep. A second daily close below $80,000 would turn one weak candle into a pattern.
  • Overhead: $80,849.9, the past day’s high, then $82,500, the level CoinDesk called the floor lost last Thursday, and $84,250, which bitcoin has not held on an hourly close since Wednesday 21 Oct.
  • Below: $79,265.0, Monday’s low, then $79,120.8 from Saturday. A sustained break of $79,120.8 would put $78,000 in view, the strike where Friday’s expiring options pay holders least, by our count.

On the calendar (UTC / CET)

  • Tue 27 Oct: the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting.
  • Wed 28 Oct, 14:00 UTC (15:00 CET): Strategy’s special meeting, where shareholders vote on changes to its four preferred stocks. 18:00 UTC (19:00 CET): Fed decision; Chair Warsh’s press conference at 18:30 UTC (19:30 CET).
  • Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 UTC (13:30 CET): US third-quarter GDP advance estimate and September PCE. The ECB decides, usually at 13:15 UTC (14:15 CET). Strategy and Coinbase report after the US close, with calls at 21:00 UTC (22:00 CET).
  • Fri 30 Oct, 08:00 UTC (09:00 CET): Deribit monthly options expiry. The Bank of Japan also announces its decision.
  • Sun 1 Nov: US clocks go back an hour.

As of 04:53 UTC (05:53 CET), bitcoin was trading near $79,997 on Kraken and ether near $2,318. This is market commentary, not financial advice.

Related: Saturday’s First Print

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.