Bitcoin ends the week 3.1% lower on Kraken, below its 20-day and 50-day averages. Ether lost 1.9% and XRP 3.1%. Solana fell 7.2% and is the only large asset outside its normal weekly range.
The clearer signal is in the flows. In the seven days to 1 Nov, about $3.8 billion more in bitcoin was withdrawn from exchanges than was deposited, the largest weekly net outflow since late September in Coin Metrics data.
Exchange balances dropped below their 90-day band. The week included the hack at Binance and Binance’s phased withdrawal restart on 1 Nov.
Dollar stablecoin supply shrank by $4.5 billion, its third weekly fall in a row and the largest of the three. The 19 Oct Signal Board first flagged the decline.
US spot bitcoin ETFs swung back to net outflows. At the same time, bitcoin futures open interest on OKX rose 12% and sits above its band.
The pattern is a market that is moving coins off platforms and shrinking its cash buffer while leverage builds on one large venue.
Each entry compares the hourly close at 10:00 UTC on Monday with the same hour a week earlier unless noted. A “band” is the 90-day average of the statistic plus or minus one standard deviation; a “Reading” describes where the metric sits, not where it is going.
Spot
Bitcoin price. Fell from $80,428 to $77,967 (−3.1%) over the week on Kraken. Price is 3.0% below its 20-day exponential moving average ($80,381) and 4.8% below its 50-day simple average ($81,915); the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a 0–100 momentum gauge, is 40. Reading: inside its band for weekly moves, within a range of $76,500 to $81,683 in hourly closes.
A daily close back above the 20-day average near $80,400 would end the run below both averages. A close under $76,500 would set a new low for this range.
Ether price. Fell from $2,333 to $2,288 (−1.9%). It is 3.4% below its 20-day EMA ($2,367) and 9.0% below its 50-day average ($2,515), with an RSI of 35. Reading: inside its band.
Ether-bitcoin ratio. Rose from 0.0290 to 0.0293. The ratio is the price of one ether in bitcoin. Reading: still below its 90-day band (0.0296–0.0319), as it has been at every daily close since 17 Oct.
Solana price. Fell from $101.52 to $94.22 (−7.2%), below its 20-day ($101.92) and 50-day ($108.94) averages, with an RSI of 29. Reading: below its band for weekly moves; Sunday’s daily close of $94.41 was the lowest since 22 Aug.
XRP price. Fell from $1.289 to $1.250 (−3.1%), with an RSI of 37. Reading: inside its band.
Futures
Bitcoin perpetual funding (Deribit). Eased from 0.0078% to 0.0076% per eight hours. Funding is the fee holders of a perpetual future pay each other to keep the contract near spot; positive means longs pay shorts. The 7-day average rose from 0.0035% to 0.0057%. Reading: inside its 30-day band (0.0022–0.0065%), near the top.
Bitcoin futures open interest (OKX). Rose from $3.34 billion to $3.75 billion (+12.2%) between the 25 Oct and 1 Nov daily prints. Open interest is the dollar value of futures contracts still open. Reading: above its 90-day band ($2.79–3.35 billion) for a single venue, and above the $3.33 billion of two weeks ago.
Rising open interest into a falling price means more positions could be forced shut if the move extends. A drop back inside the band would show that positioning has been cut.
Options
Bitcoin implied volatility (Deribit DVOL). Rose from 38.1 to 38.4. DVOL is the 30-day volatility the options market expects, annualised; 38.4 implies a one-standard-deviation move of about 2% a day. Reading: inside its band (35.2–39.8); the hack week did not push options buyers into paying for protection.
ETFs
US spot bitcoin ETFs, week to 30 Oct. Net outflows of $202.4 million over five sessions, after $301.2 million of inflows the week before, according to Farside Investors. Four days of inflows were outweighed by a $643.2 million outflow on 30 Oct. Reading: back in the red, almost entirely because of one session.
US spot ether ETFs, week to 30 Oct. Net outflows of $431.4 million, after $220.7 million the week before, according to Farside. No day was positive. Reading: a heavier week of selling than in bitcoin.
Related: What a spot bitcoin ETF holds
On-chain activity
Bitcoin active addresses (7-day average). Rose from 616,154 to 639,826 (+3.8%), per Coin Metrics. An active address is one that sent or received bitcoin that day. Reading: inside its band.
Bitcoin transactions (7-day average). Fell from 737,606 to 673,327 (−8.7%). Reading: back inside its band after sitting above it in mid-October.
Bitcoin hash rate (7-day average). Eased from about 1,071 to 1,064 exahashes per second (−0.7%). Hash rate is the computing power securing the network. Reading: above its band; miners did not switch off in a falling week.
Capital flows
Bitcoin held on exchanges. Fell from 2,687,317 BTC to 2,651,888 BTC (−1.3%), per Coin Metrics. Reading: below its band (2.67–2.71 million BTC); about 35,400 BTC left tracked exchange wallets in a week.
Exchange net flow (7-day sum). Net outflows of $3.81 billion in the week to 1 Nov, after $104 million the week before. Net flow is the dollar value of bitcoin sent to exchanges minus the value withdrawn. The largest daily net outflows came on 29 Oct ($1.84 billion), 27 Oct ($1.40 billion) and 1 Nov ($1.30 billion). Reading: the biggest weekly outflow since the seven days to 27 Sep.
Outflows of this size can mean holders moving coins into self-custody, or exchanges reshuffling their own wallets. Should balances keep falling once Binance’s withdrawals return to normal, the self-custody reading would gain weight.
Dollar stablecoin supply. Fell from $302.3 billion to $297.7 billion (−1.5%), per DefiLlama, and is $10.2 billion below its 7 Oct peak. Reading: the weekly change is below its band (−0.5% to +0.6%); supply is now $6.9 billion lower than on 19 Oct.
Related: What a dollar stablecoin is
A return to weekly growth would show buying power returning. Another fall of this size would take supply below $295 billion.
Profitability
Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Fell from 1.48 to 1.45. MVRV divides bitcoin’s market value by its realised value, which prices each coin at the level it last moved. Above 1 means coins are worth more on average than when they last moved. Reading: inside its band (1.34–1.58), in its lower half.
Signal Board dashboard
| Metric | Week ago | Now | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC price (Kraken) | $80,428 | $77,967 | ● |
| ETH price | $2,333 | $2,288 | ● |
| SOL price | $101.52 | $94.22 | ▼ |
| ETH/BTC ratio | 0.0290 | 0.0293 | ▼ |
| BTC perp funding, % per 8h (Deribit) | 0.0078 | 0.0076 | ● |
| BTC futures OI, OKX | $3.34B | $3.75B | ▲ |
| DVOL | 38.1 | 38.4 | ● |
| BTC ETF flows, week | +$301.2M | −$202.4M | — |
| ETH ETF flows, week | −$220.7M | −$431.4M | — |
| Active addresses, 7-day avg | 616,154 | 639,826 | ● |
| Hash rate, 7-day avg, EH/s | 1,071 | 1,064 | ▲ |
| BTC on exchanges | 2,687,317 | 2,651,888 | ▼ |
| Exchange net flow, 7-day | −$104M | −$3.81B | — |
| Stablecoin supply | $302.3B | $297.7B | ▼ |
| MVRV | 1.48 | 1.45 | ● |
▲ above the 90-day band, ● inside it, ▼ below it; — no band computed.
The read: coins are leaving exchanges and stablecoin supply is shrinking, while open interest on OKX builds and funding drifts higher. That mix leaves price exposed to forced selling if it slips. The tests this week are Binance’s proof-of-reserves report and whether US ETF flows turn positive; Monday’s First Print has the levels traders are watching.
Data note: prices are Kraken hourly closes; funding and DVOL are Deribit prints, and Deribit’s public funding history covers 30 days, so the funding band uses 30 days; open interest is OKX’s daily print for all BTC contracts, a single venue; ETF flows are Farside Investors end-of-day figures and may be revised; on-chain and exchange metrics are Coin Metrics Community Data through 1 Nov, and exchange coverage and entity labels are incomplete, so exchange-wallet movements may be misread; stablecoin supply is DefiLlama’s USD-pegged total. The Macro section is omitted this week because our usual market-data feed was unavailable. Data as of 10:00 UTC on 2 Nov 2026; latest points may be revised.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.