First Print 2 Nov: bitcoin near $78,370 after 2.3% weekly loss

Key points

Bitcoin closed the week at $78,239 on Kraken, 2.3% below Monday’s open of $80,049. Sunday itself finished 1% higher.
Overnight it reached $78,740, above Friday’s high of $78,667 and its highest since Thursday. At about 04:50 UTC it was near $78,370 on Kraken and $78,377 on Coinbase.
The map: $78,740, then last week’s open of $80,049 overhead; $77,521, then October’s low of $76,155.5, below.

A losing week. A firmer Monday.

The weekly candle closed at midnight UTC at $78,239 on Kraken. It opened last Monday at $80,049, before Thursday’s hack at Binance turned the week. Sunday’s First Print had bitcoin near $77,720, inside a band of a few hundred dollars.

That band broke upward late on Sunday.

One busy hour

In the 23:00 UTC hour, bitcoin rose from $77,727 to $78,239, a 0.7% move. Kraken traded about 105 BTC in that hour, the most of the night.

It came in the hour US stock-index futures reopened for the week. That is timing, not proof of cause.

The push carried on in Asian hours. Bitcoin touched $78,739.7 in the 03:00 UTC hour. Monday’s low so far is $77,933.

Ether did a little better. It was near $2,300 at about 04:50 UTC, after closing Sunday at $2,272.

Solana was near $95.11 and XRP near $1.254. CoinGecko put bitcoin’s share of the total market at 60.0%.

Leverage is still leaving

The rise did not pull new bets in.

Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $660 million, down from about $678 million at the same hour on Sunday. DVOL, Deribit’s gauge of expected volatility, eased to 38.6 from 39.5.

Funding is still near flat. Deribit showed 0.0032% per eight hours, Binance 0.0078% and OKX 0.0054%.

Put simply, funding is the fee that holders of perpetual futures pay each other to keep the contract near spot. Near-zero funding means neither side is paying up to hold its bet.

A spot-led drift on thin leverage can run further than it looks. It can also fade without anyone being forced out.

Binance owes a proof

The day’s first test is a document.

On Sunday, Binance said its updated proof-of-reserves report, with a zero-knowledge proof, was expected on its website on Monday. It had not appeared by about 04:50 UTC. The report follows its phased restart of withdrawals.

A clean report would close one of the week’s open questions. A late or thin one would reopen it.

Europe also wakes to a smaller security story. BTCPay Server’s warning says attackers swept merchant hot wallets on older versions of its software. It is not a market mover, but it lands in a week already about custody.

US flows are the other gap. Friday’s $643 million of US spot bitcoin ETF outflows were the last print before the weekend. Monday’s numbers arrive after the US close.

Stay nimble.

Chart to watch

Kraken’s hourly candles since Sunday 21:00 UTC: a step up from about $77,700 to a band of $78,000 to $78,740, held through Asian hours.
Overhead: $78,739.7, the overnight high, then $80,048.7, last week’s open. Bitcoin has not traded above $84,250 since early on 22 Oct.
Below: $77,521, Sunday night’s low, then $77,000 and October’s low of $76,155.5. Hourly closes under $77,521 would erase the overnight step.

On the calendar (UTC / CET)

Mon 2 Nov: Binance’s updated proof-of-reserves report is expected. Fed Senior Loan Officer survey at 19:00 UTC (20:00 CET).
Tue 3 Nov, 03:30 UTC (04:30 CET): Reserve Bank of Australia decision. US midterm elections. France’s National Assembly votes on part one of the 2027 budget bill in the afternoon. US job openings (JOLTS) at 15:00 UTC (16:00 CET).
Wed 4 Nov: Euro-area flash inflation for October.
Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 UTC (13:00 CET): Bank of England decision.
Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET): US October jobs report, after a $2.1 billion Deribit bitcoin options expiry at 08:00 UTC (09:00 CET).

As of 04:47 UTC (05:47 CET), bitcoin was trading near $78,370 on Kraken and ether near $2,300. This is market commentary, not financial advice.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.