First Print 1 Nov: bitcoin near $77,700 after a 7.3% October

Key points

Bitcoin’s October candle closed at $77,437 on Kraken, 7.3% below the 1 Oct open of $83,565. Ether closed the month at $2,252.50, down 16.1%.
At about 04:50 UTC bitcoin was near $77,720 on Kraken and $77,711 on Coinbase, inside a night range of $77,317 to $77,743.
The map: $77,743 and Friday’s high of $78,667 overhead, $84,250 far beyond; $77,000, then October’s low of $76,155.5, below.

October is in the books. The next question is about plumbing, not price.

The monthly candle closed at midnight UTC at $77,437 on Kraken. That is a 7.3% fall from the month’s open. Friday’s US-close Market Read showed on Bitstamp’s daily history that only 2014 was worse, and the close did nothing to change that.

Ether fared worse. It opened October at $2,684 and closed it at $2,252.50, a 16.1% fall. Both coins set their monthly lows on 30 Oct, at $76,155.5 and $2,170.

A thin first night

November’s first hours were small. Bitcoin’s low after 21:00 UTC was $77,316.8 and its high $77,742.8, in the 02:00 UTC hour. Kraken traded fewer than 15 BTC in each of the first three hours of Sunday.

At about 04:50 UTC, bitcoin was near $77,720. Ether was near $2,265, Solana near $95.41 and XRP near $1.250. CoinGecko put bitcoin’s share of the total market at 59.3%.

Leverage kept draining. Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $678 million, down from about $700 million at the same hour on Saturday. DVOL, Deribit’s gauge of expected volatility, slipped to 39.5 from 40.6.

Funding is close to neutral. Deribit showed 0.0007% per eight hours, Binance 0.01% and Bybit 0.005%.

Put simply, funding is the fee that holders of perpetual futures pay each other to keep the contract near spot. Near-zero funding means neither side is paying up to hold its bet.

Binance sets the tone

The real event of the morning is not on a chart.

Binance says phase one of withdrawals runs from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC today, across 15 networks. It also says about 95% of the amount stolen in this week’s hack is now covered. Binance’s restart plan has the network list.

A smooth window would remove a weight that has sat on the market since Thursday night. A messy one would hit liquidity first and prices after.

The case is also now a state matter. The FBI on Saturday blamed North Korea’s TraderTraitor for the theft and published 628 addresses for exchanges to block. The FBI’s attribution lists what it asked for.

Watch the withdrawal queue, not the candle.

Chart to watch

Kraken’s hourly candles since 21:00 UTC Saturday: a band of roughly $77,320 to $77,740, on very low volume. A break of either edge during the Binance window would show how traders read the restart.
Overhead: $77,743, the overnight high, then $78,667.3, Friday’s high. Bitcoin has not traded above $84,250 since early on 22 Oct.
Below: $77,000, Saturday’s low, then $76,155.5, October’s low. Hourly closes under that would take bitcoin below anything it traded in October.

On the calendar (UTC / CET)

Sun 1 Nov, 06:00-09:00 UTC (07:00-10:00 CET): Binance phase-one withdrawal window. US clocks went back overnight; US index futures reopen at 23:00 UTC (00:00 CET Monday).
Mon 2 Nov: Binance has said it will publish proof-of-reserves results.
Tue 3 Nov, 03:30 UTC (04:30 CET): Reserve Bank of Australia decision. US midterm elections. US job openings (JOLTS) at 15:00 UTC (16:00 CET).
Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 UTC (13:00 CET): Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report.
Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET): US October jobs report.

As of 04:50 UTC (05:50 CET), bitcoin was trading near $77,720 on Kraken and ether near $2,265. This is market commentary, not financial advice.

Related: Saturday’s First Print

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.