Key points
- US consumer prices for September are due on Wednesday 14 Oct at 12:30 UTC (14:30 CEST). Producer prices and September retail sales follow at the same time on Thursday, and Monday is a US federal holiday.
- Deribit shows 15,047 BTC of option open interest expiring on Friday 16 Oct at 08:00 UTC (10:00 CEST), about $1.25 billion at today’s price. Puts outnumber calls by 1.49 to one.
- The biggest single strike is $80,000, with 2,275 BTC, almost all of it puts. Bitcoin traded near $82,938 at 09:51 UTC, 3.7% above that line.
The tape is asleep. The calendar is not.
Bitcoin has spent two days inside a narrow band, and Sunday’s First Print has the levels: Thursday’s low of $80,328.6 below, Monday’s high of $86,973.6 above. Deribit’s volatility index, DVOL, read 36.9 at 09:51 UTC, which implies a one-standard-deviation move of about 1.9% a day. The week’s scheduled events are what could test that number.
Put simply, an options expiry is the moment a batch of option contracts settles, and open interest is how many of them are still outstanding. A put pays if bitcoin finishes below its strike, the price written into the contract. A call pays if it finishes above.
The week, day by day (UTC / CEST)
- Mon 12 Oct: Columbus Day is a US federal holiday, so the Fed says its statistical releases move to Tuesday. SIFMA recommends a full close of US dollar fixed income, and Japan’s markets are shut for Health and Sports Day, while US stock and ETF trading continues. Evernorth’s shares are expected to trade on Nasdaq as XRPN from Monday, per the company’s release; see our report on the merger.
- Tue 13 Oct: Fed Governor Christopher Waller joins a discussion on AI at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi at 07:45 UTC (09:45 CEST). The French National Assembly starts its floor debate on the 2027 revenue bill from the government’s own text, so the committee’s stablecoin-swap tax would have to be re-tabled; see our report. The CFTC’s advance notice on retail crypto transactions is due in the Federal Register, which starts its comment clock; the register’s own listing gives 14 Dec as the deadline. See our report on the notice.
- Wed 14 Oct: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman takes part in a discussion on supervision and regulation at the IIF summit in Bangkok at 09:40 UTC (11:40 CEST). US CPI for September lands at 12:30 UTC (14:30 CEST). Bowman gives a second speech, at the Bangkok Economic Festival, at 02:55 UTC on Thursday (04:55 CEST); the Fed lists its subject as to be announced.
- Thu 15 Oct: US producer prices for September and advance retail sales for September are both due at 12:30 UTC (14:30 CEST). Ethereum’s consensus-layer developers hold their All Core Devs call at 14:00 UTC (16:00 CEST), with Glamsterdam and Hegotá on the agenda; see where Glamsterdam stands. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh joins IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva for a fireside chat in Bangkok at 03:30 UTC on Friday (05:30 CEST).
- Fri 16 Oct: Deribit’s weekly options expire at 08:00 UTC (10:00 CEST). US import and export prices for September are due at 12:30 UTC (14:30 CEST). Thailand’s crypto ETF rules take effect, as we reported, and Ethereum client teams are due to ship Glamsterdam-compatible releases for the Hoodi testnet.
For the link between inflation data and crypto, our guide on how bond yields affect bitcoin is the starting point. We are not quoting consensus forecasts for CPI, because published ones differ.
Friday’s expiry, strike by strike
Of the 15,047 BTC expiring on Friday, 9,015 are puts and 6,033 are calls. At $82,938, that is about $1.25 billion by our arithmetic, one contract being 1 BTC.
The puts bunch below the market. Puts at or below $80,000 hold 6,668 BTC, 44% of all open interest in this expiry and 74% of the puts. The top five strikes are $80,000 (2,275 BTC, of which 2,261 puts), $78,000 (1,978 BTC, 1,976 puts), $83,000 (1,511 BTC, split 922 puts and 589 calls), $76,000 (1,232 BTC, all puts) and $90,000 (1,098 BTC, 1,095 calls). Calls at $85,000 and above total 5,059 BTC.
Open interest counts contracts, not intent. A put can be a hedge held against a long position as easily as a bearish bet, and the data does not say which. What it does show is where payouts would start if bitcoin finished the week at those prices.
Our “max-pain” strike for the expiry is $83,000, $62 above Sunday’s price. Max pain is the strike where option holders as a group would collect the least if every contract were held to expiry. We calculate it from Deribit’s open interest. It is a convention, not a force.
A different reading
Friday is a small expiry. It holds 4.0% of the 373,311 BTC of option open interest on Deribit. The monthly expiry on 30 Oct holds 140,897 BTC, 37.7% of the total and more than nine times Friday’s size. A level that matters on Friday morning may matter far less once Wednesday’s inflation print has passed through the market. For liquidation risk if price does gap, see what a liquidation is.
Not on the calendar
- Treasury and Iran-linked crypto: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on 9 Oct that the US would “probably” seize about $1 billion in Iran-linked crypto this week. We had seen no Treasury announcement as of Sunday morning; see our report.
- Ledger and CryptoBilis: Ledger’s investigation continues. It has confirmed an unauthorized hardware implant in one impacted user’s device and has not confirmed any loss total; see the latest update.
Just beyond the week
- Tue 20 Oct: comments are due on the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal.
- Mon 26 Oct: the Hoodi testnet run of Glamsterdam, per the call notes we reported.
- Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 UTC (19:00 CET): the Fed’s FOMC decision, after a two-day meeting from 27 Oct. Europe’s clocks go back on 25 Oct. The ECB’s Governing Council meets on 28 and 29 Oct.
Know the clock before you watch the candle.
As of 09:51 UTC (11:51 CEST), bitcoin was trading near $82,938 on Kraken. This is market commentary, not financial advice.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.