Key points
- Bitcoin traded near $82,609 on Kraken at 05:24 UTC, inside a $214 range ($82,474.8 to $82,688.6) since midnight UTC, after Friday’s close of $82,559.4.
- US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $21.1 million on Friday, their first inflow since Tuesday, but the week through Friday is still −$678.9 million per Farside.
- The level is still $80,328.6, Thursday’s low; a daily close, at 00:00 UTC, below $80,100 would take bitcoin out of the 18–21 Sep base.
Bitcoin has barely moved since the weekend began. The derivatives market has moved even less.
The largest cryptocurrency changed hands near $82,609 on Kraken at 05:24 UTC, with Coinbase spot at $82,605. That is 4.5% below from Monday’s $86,506.6 open and 2.8% above Thursday’s $80,328.6 low. Ether was near $2,492, Solana near $109.86 and XRP near $1.408.
Related: Friday night’s market read
Put simply, funding is the periodic payment between traders who are long and short on a perpetual future; when it is near zero, neither side is paying much to hold its position. Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual showed 0.0012% per eight hours at 05:24 UTC, down from 0.0034% when we checked at about 20:00 UTC on Friday. Annualised, that is 1.3%. Nobody is paying up to lean on this market.
Options agree. Deribit’s DVOL index, a 30-day implied-volatility gauge for bitcoin, was 36.67 on the latest hourly bar, near the bottom of its three-day range of 35.79 to 39.41. Traders are not paying for protection this weekend.
A year after 10/10
Today is the anniversary of the 10 Oct 2025 crash. CoinGlass recorded more than $19 billion of liquidations in 24 hours, and bitcoin fell from a Friday high near $122,574 to about $104,800, according to CoinGecko. Bitcoin is now about 33% below that high. Liquidations, the forced closing of leveraged positions when margin runs out, are far smaller this week: CoinDesk cited CoinGlass for $1.09 billion over 24 hours on Friday.
Related: What liquidations are
Flows turned, a little
The ETF tape improved at the margin. BlackRock’s IBIT took in $22.4 million on Friday and the group ended at +$21.1 million after $729.0 million of redemptions on Wednesday and Thursday. Week to date, bitcoin funds are still $678.9 million lower. Ether funds lost $56.1 million, a ninth straight outflow day.
Related: Friday’s ETF Desk
The macro weights have not moved
Friday’s closes carry into the weekend. Brent closed near $104.43, the US 10-year yield at 5.244% and the dollar index at 102.23, while gold rose 1.5% to $4,220.3. The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.5. Oil above $104 and a 10-year above 5.2% were the backdrop to Thursday’s drop to $80,328.6, and neither has eased.
A quiet Saturday tape is thin-book quiet, not conviction. Sunday evening in Asia and Wednesday’s US inflation print are the next real tests.
Don’t mistake quiet for safe.
Chart to watch
- Kraken’s hourly candles since midnight UTC: a 0.26% range, narrow for a market that dropped 3.5% from open to low on Thursday. The break, in either direction, is the story.
- Overhead: $83,467, the two-day high, then $85,589, the 7 Oct high before Wednesday’s drop.
- Below: $80,328.6, then the $80,100 line that marks the 18–21 Sep base.
Related: Coin Levels for Friday
On the calendar (UTC / CEST)
- Mon 12 Oct: US federal holiday (Columbus Day), per the BLS calendar. Evernorth’s shares are due to start trading on Nasdaq as XRPN.
- Tue 13 Oct: French National Assembly starts its floor debate on the 2027 budget’s revenue part, where the committee’s stablecoin-swap tax would need to be re-tabled. our report
- Wed 14 Oct, 12:30 UTC (14:30 CEST): US CPI for September.
- Thu 15 Oct, 12:30 UTC (14:30 CEST): US PPI for September.
As of 05:24 UTC (07:24 CEST), bitcoin was trading near $82,609 on Kraken and ether near $2,492. This is market commentary, not financial advice.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.