Key points
- Bitcoin printed $79,709 on Kraken in the 13:00 UTC hour (5-minute low at 13:55 UTC) after the hot PPI print detailed in our US-open market read, then reclaimed the low $82,000s by 15:00 UTC and held near $82,300 into the US close window.
- Deribit’s Friday 08:00 UTC expiry still leans put-side: about 17,839 BTC of open interest, puts outnumbering calls 1.27 to one, with the largest lines still the $78,000 put (2,742 BTC) and the $80,000 put (1,883 BTC).
- Spot remains below Monday’s $84,250 high. Farside’s 15 October ETF row was still blank at 19:45 UTC, so Thursday’s fund flow is not in this read.
The morning story was the break. The afternoon story is the repair.
This morning’s First Print had already flagged the Asia low of $80,150 under Tuesday’s $80,951. The Bureau of Labor Statistics then printed September final-demand producer prices up 1.3%, the most since March 2022. In the first US cash hour, Kraken traded as low as $79,709 and Coinbase’s 24-hour stats showed a low of $79,676.02 — deeper than the $79,987 five-minute print we logged at 13:30 UTC.
What the tape did next
The 14:00 UTC hour on Kraken opened near $80,115, ran to $81,944 and closed at $81,770. The 15:00 UTC hour pushed the high to $82,519 and closed at $82,336. From there the market chopped in a roughly $81,860 to $82,540 band through 19:00 UTC. At 19:47 UTC Kraken showed bitcoin at $82,358.50, ether at $2,454.70, Solana at $105.93 and XRP at $1.343.
Put simply, a “repair” here means price reclaimed the level it lost at the open without yet reclaiming the prior swing high. Traders still mark Monday’s $84,250 as the ceiling that stopped the rebound after Wednesday’s CPI.
Derivatives
Leverage cooled a notch from the post-PPI spike. Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $871 million at 19:46 UTC, down from roughly $886 million at 13:48 UTC. The recent eight-hour funding print was about 0.0059%, still slightly positive. OKX’s BTC-USDT swap funding rate was about 0.01%. Deribit’s DVOL index eased to about 38.7 in the 19:00 UTC hour, from about 40.1 just after the PPI release.
Friday’s options book is a little lighter than at the open but still put-heavy. Open interest on the 16 October expiry was about 9,987 BTC in puts and 7,851 BTC in calls (P/C 1.27), versus about 18,004 BTC total and a 1.35 P/C at 13:48 UTC. The $78,000 and $80,000 puts remain the two largest single strikes, the same lines our week-ahead calendar highlighted on Sunday.
The levels
The level that mattered at the open was $80,000, and it failed. The level that matters into Asia is whether $82,000 holds as a floor on the bounce. A sustained break back below $80,000 would reopen the $78,000 put strike as the next marked area. A sustained reclaim of $84,250 — still unbroken on this Kraken hourly set — would be the first serious challenge to the post-CPI/PPI downswing and to the Bearish Brief line we have carried since that break.
One alternative read is that the afternoon bounce simply covered shorts after a stop-run under $80,000, and that without Thursday ETF flows (still unpublished on Farside at our cutoff) the repair is fragile. That sits beside Wednesday’s $261.4 million bitcoin ETF outflow, the worst session since 7 October.
As of 19:47 UTC, bitcoin is trading near $82,359 on Kraken.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.