First Print 15 Oct: bitcoin breaks $80,951 as Kospi sinks

Key points

Bitcoin fell to $80,150 on Kraken in the 02:00 UTC hour, and to $80,125 on Coinbase, below Tuesday’s low of $80,951.2. It traded near $80,730 at 03:47 UTC, 1.0% below the UTC-day open and 4.2% under Monday’s $84,250 high.
South Korea’s Kospi was down about 8% in Thursday trading after sell-side curbs kicked in shortly after the open. Japan’s Nikkei was down about 5%.
US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $150.5 million on Wednesday excluding BlackRock’s IBIT, which had not reported. US producer prices and retail sales land at 12:30 UTC.

Tuesday’s dip was repaired. Wednesday’s CPI print undid the repair, and Asia has now taken out the low.

Bitcoin changed hands near $80,728 on Kraken at 03:47 UTC (05:47 CEST), with Coinbase at $80,741. The overnight drop came in one hour: Kraken’s 02:00 UTC candle opened at $81,537, wicked to $80,150 and closed back at $81,411. The next hour gave most of that back. Ether was near $2,353, down 2.7% on the day, Solana near $102 and XRP near $1.30.

The hot inflation numbers set this up. September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, with core up 0.3% and 2.6%, as Wednesday’s CPI market read laid out. Bitcoin closed Wednesday’s UTC day at $81,576.4, near the bottom of an $81,333 to $84,049 range, and the S&P 500 closed 1.1% lower at 7,718.94.

The low broke in Seoul’s hours

Put simply, a lower low is a price dip that goes deeper than the previous one. Traders watch for it because it means the last buyers who stepped in, on Tuesday at $80,951, have been undercut. It does not say how far the next leg runs.

The timing points east. The Korea Exchange suspended program selling on the Kospi for five minutes shortly after the open, Yonhap reported, after the index opened 5.59% lower. Sidecars were triggered on both the Kospi and the Kosdaq, the first time on the same day since 29 July, according to Korea JoongAng Daily, which tied the selling to doubts about returns on AI spending, fears of more memory-chip supply from China and the prospect of another US rate hike. Foreign investors had sold a net 1.92 trillion won ($1.4 billion) of shares on the main board by 10:30 local time, it said. Yahoo Finance quotes showed the Kospi near 5,529 at about 03:40 UTC, against Wednesday’s close of 6,008.81. This is the second Korean rout in three sessions; Tuesday’s was in Tuesday’s market read.

Bitcoin’s drop came in the 02:00 UTC hour, 11:00 in Seoul; at 10:30 local time the Kospi was already down 7.77%, JoongAng said. Rates did not help: the US 10-year yield was near 5.19%, and Brent near $104.45.

Options price more than spot has delivered

Deribit’s DVOL read 38.8 at 03:00 UTC, which implies a move of about 2.0% a day. Our 48-hour realised volatility, from Kraken hourly closes, is 26.4%, annualised. Hourly closes miss wicks like the one to $80,150, so that figure understates the swing, but implied is above realised again.

Leverage did not flush. Funding on Deribit’s perpetual was about 0.008% per eight hours and OKX’s BTC swap rate was 0.0024%, so longs are still paying a sliver. Open interest on Deribit’s perpetual was about $858 million, up from $846 million on Wednesday morning, per Wednesday’s First Print.

Friday’s weekly expiry leans the same way. Deribit showed 17,506 BTC of open interest on 16 Oct options, about $1.4 billion at the index, with puts outnumbering calls 1.43 to one. The largest lines are puts at $78,000 (2,735 BTC) and $80,000 (2,171 BTC). Our calendar flagged the $80,000 strike on Sunday in our week-ahead calendar; spot is now just above it.

Flows and the data

ETF money turned again. On Wednesday Fidelity’s FBTC lost $152.7 million and Bitwise’s BITB took in $2.2 million, for a total of minus $150.5 million on Farside’s table, with IBIT’s cell still blank at 03:4x UTC. That follows Tuesday’s ETF inflows of $175.7 million. Ether funds were down $19.7 million, excluding BlackRock’s ETHA and ETHB, which had not reported either.

US producer prices for September and the Census Bureau’s advance retail sales both print at 12:30 UTC (14:30 CEST). After a core CPI of 0.3%, a firm PPI would add to the case for the Federal Reserve to stay tight at its 27 to 28 Oct meeting. Wednesday’s Chain Signals marked $84,250 as the ceiling. The floor is now the question.

The level that matters is $80,150. A daily close under it would leave the Friday put strikes in charge; a close back above $80,951 would turn the overnight drop into a wick.

Watch the close, not the wick.

Chart to watch

Kraken’s daily candles this week: a $84,250 high on Monday, a $80,951.2 low on Tuesday, a $84,049.3 high and $81,576.4 close on Wednesday, and a $80,150.0 low so far on Thursday.
Overhead: $80,951.2, then $81,808, Thursday’s high so far, then $84,049 and $84,250.
Below: $80,150, then $80,000 and $78,000, the biggest put strikes for Friday’s expiry.

On the calendar (UTC / CEST)

Thu 15 Oct, 12:30 UTC (14:30 CEST): US producer prices and advance retail sales for September.
Fri 16 Oct, 08:00 UTC (10:00 CEST): Deribit’s weekly bitcoin options expire, with 17,506 BTC of open interest as of this morning.
Tue 27 to Wed 28 Oct: Federal Reserve policy meeting.

As of 03:47 UTC (05:47 CEST), bitcoin was trading near $80,730 on Kraken and ether near $2,353. This is market commentary, not financial advice.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.