At a glance
– The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 Oct, after raising it in September, and said rising energy prices pose upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.
– An hour earlier, US data showed growth of 3.4% at an annual rate in the third quarter and PCE inflation of 3.6% in September. Bitcoin moved less than 0.2% around either release on Kraken.

What the ECB said

The Governing Council left all three rates where they were: 2.50% on the deposit facility, 2.65% on main refinancing operations and 2.90% on the marginal lending facility, according to the ECB’s statement. Its last move, on 16 Sep, lifted the deposit rate from 2.25%.

The language was cautious rather than hawkish. “Energy prices have continued to rise,” the bank said, while underlying inflation “has remained broadly stable so far” and wages show no material response yet. It added that financing conditions have tightened since September, which should weigh on both inflation and growth.

The ECB repeated that it is “not pre-committing to a particular rate path”. This came on the same day Christine Lagarde said she would leave the presidency on 7 Feb, so the decision is one of her last.

What the US data said

The American numbers were the louder story. Real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said, driven by investment, consumer and government spending.

Prices are the problem. The worked numbers, from the September income and outlays report:

  • The PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, rose 0.5% in the month and 3.6% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August.
  • Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% in the month and 3.1% over the year.
  • Real disposable income fell 0.3%, and the saving rate was 3.8%.

That is strong growth with inflation moving the wrong way, a day after the Fed held at 3.75% to 4% with two officials wanting a hike.

My base case: the energy squeeze

I will call it the energy squeeze. On both sides of the Atlantic, central banks face an energy shock that pushes prices up and growth down at the same time. They are choosing to wait rather than to ease, and that keeps real yields firm.

For bitcoin, that is a headwind rather than a shock. If you want the mechanics, our guide on how bond yields affect bitcoin sets them out. A month ago, the August PCE reading of 3.4% still looked like a plateau; September says it is rising again.

The tape so far agrees with “headwind, not shock”.

On Kraken, bitcoin went from $80,012 to $80,023 in the 15 minutes after the US data at 12:30 UTC. Around the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC it went from $80,002 to $80,144. The euro edged from $1.1127 to $1.1118 over the following half hour.

The bigger move came later. Bitcoin jumped from $80,325 to $81,146 in the 14:30 UTC quarter-hour, touching $81,404. I can’t tie that to either release, and I won’t pretend to.

What would change my mind

Two things. First, a second month of 0.5% PCE readings would make a Fed hike in December look far more likely, and I would expect bitcoin to feel that more than it did today.

Second, a clear turn in energy prices. If oil eases, the squeeze loosens and the ECB’s “upside risks” language would fade with it.

The bottom line: Neither bank moved today, but neither is close to easing either. For bitcoin, the friendlier macro backdrop some traders hope for has not shown up yet.

— Alasdair

Data: ECB and BEA releases, 29 Oct 2026; Kraken XBT/USD and EUR/USD 15-minute candles, 12:30–14:45 UTC. Not financial advice.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.