First Print 4 Nov: bitcoin near $77,300 after $75,625 low

Key points

Bitcoin fell to $75,625 on Kraken in the 03:00 UTC hour, below October’s low of $76,155.5 and its lowest since 16 Sep. It then climbed back. At about 04:55 UTC it was near $77,265 on Kraken and $77,277 on Coinbase.
The rebound ran through the hour in which US networks and the AP called key Senate races. That is timing, not proof of cause.
The map: $77,430, Wednesday’s high so far, then Tuesday’s $77,970 overhead; $76,040, then $75,625, below.

A new low. A quick recovery.

Bitcoin opened Wednesday at $77,331.7 on Kraken and drifted lower through the night in Europe. Monday’s First Print had it near $78,370. By the 02:00 UTC close it was at $76,040.8.

Then the floor gave way, briefly.

One heavy hour

In the 03:00 UTC hour bitcoin touched $75,625. Kraken traded about 318 BTC in that hour, the most of the night. It still closed the hour at $76,373.5, well off the low.

The next hour did the rest. Bitcoin rose to $77,399.5, and at about 04:55 UTC it was back near where the day began.

That hour was a busy one in the US. The AP called Texas’s Senate race at 04:03 UTC and Ohio’s at 04:10 UTC, and by 04:42 UTC it reported that Democrats had won control of the Senate. CryptoWatchDesk covers Sherrod Brown’s win in Ohio separately.

Markets often move on results nights. Whether this one moved because of them is a different question, and the candles cannot answer it.

Ether followed the same shape. It fell to $2,223 and was near $2,276 at about 04:55 UTC.

Solana was near $92.12 and XRP near $1.269. CoinGecko put bitcoin’s share of the total market at 59.3%.

Leverage sat it out

The drop did not shake out many bets. The rebound did not add many either.

Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $667 million, against about $660 million on Monday morning. DVOL, Deribit’s gauge of expected volatility, was 38.5, slightly lower than a day earlier.

Funding stayed small. Deribit showed 0.0045% per eight hours, Binance and OKX 0.0100%.

Put simply, open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. When it barely changes through a sharp move, the move came mostly from spot buyers and sellers, not from traders being forced out.

That makes the low less of a flush and more of a test. A test can be repeated.

Europe’s turn

The first number of the European day is inflation. Eurostat publishes its flash estimate for October at 10:00 UTC (11:00 CET).

US flows are the other gap. Monday’s $398.6 million of outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs were the last full print. The US House had not been called by the AP at 05:00 UTC.

Stay nimble.

Chart to watch

Kraken’s hourly candles since Tuesday 22:00 UTC: a slide from about $77,800 to $75,625, then a V back to about $77,265 by 04:55 UTC.
Overhead: $77,429.7, Wednesday’s high so far, then $77,969.8, Tuesday’s high. Bitcoin has not traded above $84,250 since 22 Oct.
Below: $76,040.8, the 02:00 UTC close, then $75,625, the night’s low, and $74,957, the mid-September low. Hourly closes under $76,040 would put the overnight low back in play.

On the calendar (UTC / CET)

Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 UTC (11:00 CET): Euro-area flash inflation for October. Results still to be called in the US House and some Senate races, including Nebraska.
Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 UTC (13:00 CET): Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report.
Fri 6 Nov, 08:00 UTC (09:00 CET): Deribit bitcoin options expiry.
Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET): US October jobs report.

As of 04:55 UTC (05:55 CET), bitcoin was trading near $77,265 on Kraken and ether near $2,276. This is market commentary, not financial advice.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.