Key points
- Bitcoin traded near $81,460 on Kraken at 03:46 UTC, inside a $425 band ($81,290.0 to $81,715.1) since 20:00 UTC on Friday. Coinbase showed $81,466.
- The Federal Reserve’s quiet period before its 27–28 Oct meeting began at 04:00 UTC today, so policymakers will not speak on rates until the decision.
- The week’s map is unchanged: $84,250.0, Monday’s high, overhead; $79,709.0, Thursday’s low, below.
The tape has gone still. So has the Fed.
The largest cryptocurrency changed hands near $81,460 on Kraken at 03:46 UTC, about 2.6% below Monday’s open of $83,675.6. Ether was near $2,425, Solana near $105.05 and XRP near $1.308. Since Friday’s US close it has moved in a range of $425, roughly half of one percent. Friday’s US-close Market Read has the session that set it up.
Three tries at $84,250, then a step down
Seen whole, the week leaned one way. Monday printed $84,250.0 on Kraken. Tuesday and Wednesday stalled just above $84,000, at $84,053.1 and $84,049.3. Thursday’s producer-price shock then took bitcoin to $79,709.0. Friday’s chip-led sell-off stopped at $80,705.4, a higher low, and that is the only thing buyers can point to.
The macro tide did not turn either. The S&P 500 closed Friday down 1.1% at 7,659.44 and the Nasdaq down 2.1%, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index off 3.8%. Brent rose 3.6% to $109.69, the US 10-year yield held near 5.10%, and the VIX closed at 19.99, up from 16.46 on Thursday. how bond yields move bitcoin explains why a 5% 10-year matters for an asset that pays no yield.
Then the Fed went quiet. Under the committee’s own communications policy, the blackout starts at midnight Eastern time on the second Saturday before a meeting, which this time is today. Chair Warsh’s appearance in Bangkok on Friday produced no signal on October.
Related: Warsh’s silence in Bangkok
Derivatives are not leaning
Funding agrees that nobody is pushing. Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual showed 0.0004% per eight hours and OKX 0.01%, both small and positive. Deribit perpetual open interest was about $841 million, little changed from Friday evening.
Put simply, funding is the fee that holders of perpetual futures on one side pay the other to keep the contract near spot; near zero means neither longs nor shorts are crowded. Options are a touch more nervous. Deribit’s DVOL read 37.55, which implies a one-standard-deviation move of about 2% a day. Next Friday’s weekly expiry carries about 14,680 BTC of open interest with a put-to-call ratio of 1.25, and its largest strike is the $78,000 put at roughly 1,941 BTC.
ETF buyers will not help before Monday. US spot bitcoin funds lost a net $82.4 million on Friday, per Farside, and $228.4 million over the week.
A thin weekend book can move further than it should. Respect the box until it breaks.
Chart to watch
- Kraken’s hourly candles since Friday’s US close: a $425 band from $81,290.0 to $81,715.1. A break of either edge on weekend volume is a signal of intent, not of trend.
- Overhead: $82,826, Friday’s high, then $84,250.0, Monday’s high. A sustained reclaim of $84,250 is the line that would turn the week’s structure.
- Below: $80,705.4, Friday’s higher low, then $79,709.0. A sustained break of $79,709 would reopen the $78,000 put cluster for next Friday’s expiry.
On the calendar (UTC / CEST)
- Sun 18 Oct, 22:00 UTC (Mon 00:00 CEST): US index futures reopen for the week.
- Tue 20 Oct, 12:30 UTC (14:30 CEST): US housing starts and building permits for September.
- Wed 21 Oct, about 15:00 UTC (17:00 CEST): Solana’s Alpenglow consensus upgrade is due to activate. Solana’s Alpenglow switch
- Fri 23 Oct, 08:00 UTC (10:00 CEST): Deribit weekly options expiry; 13:45 UTC (15:45 CEST) S&P Global flash PMIs; 14:00 UTC University of Michigan sentiment.
- Tue–Wed 27–28 Oct: FOMC meeting; the blackout runs until the end of 29 Oct, Eastern time.
As of 03:46 UTC (05:46 CEST), bitcoin was trading near $81,460 on Kraken and ether near $2,425. This is market commentary, not financial advice.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.