Bitcoin week ahead: Nvidia, Fed minutes, Anthropic IPO

Last week the US inflation numbers had their say. This week the AI trade gets two exams, and crypto sits in the same room.

Bitcoin traded near $65,545 on Kraken at 10:47 UTC (11:47 CET) on Sunday, up 2.2% from the UTC-day open of $64,115.1. It is down 12.3% from last Monday’s open of $74,742.4, after a week that ran from a Monday high of $75,500.0 to a Sunday low of $61,970.3, the lowest since 13 Jul.

Ether was near $1,829, up 3.4% on the UTC day after touching $1,710. Solana was near $71.96 and XRP near $0.964.

Fund flows leaned the same way. US spot bitcoin funds lost a net $1.07 billion over the week to 13 Nov, the second straight week of outflows near $1 billion, according to our ETF Desk.

Derivatives have cooled since the overnight flush. Deribit’s volatility index, DVOL, read 45.0, which implies a one-standard-deviation move of about 2.4% a day. Bitcoin perpetual open interest on Deribit was about $724 million, and funding was near zero.

Put simply, funding is the fee holders of perpetual futures pay each other to keep the contract near spot. Near zero after a 12% weekly drop means nobody is paying up to bet on a bounce, or to press the short.

For how the overnight low printed, see Sunday’s Market Read.

The bitcoin week ahead, day by day (UTC / CET)

US data land at 13:30 UTC, which is 14:30 in Paris, Zurich or Berlin. Fed times below are converted from Eastern Time.

Mon 16 Nov: Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks on artificial intelligence and financial stability at a conference in Milan at 10:00 UTC (11:00 CET), per the Fed’s calendar. dYdX’s vote on moving its USDC backing from Noble to Injective closes at 11:32 UTC; see Chain Check. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives opening remarks at the Fed’s Productivity and Jobs Task Force conference in San Francisco at 17:00 UTC (18:00 CET).
Tue 17 Nov: the Bank of Russia’s rules letting non-qualified investors buy bitcoin, ether and USDT take effect; see our report. US retail sales for October come at 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET), per the Census Bureau. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on payments at The Clearing House annual conference in New York at 14:10 UTC (15:10 CET), and industrial production follows at 14:15 UTC. After the US close, Nvidia reports third-quarter results at about 21:20 UTC (22:20 CET) and holds its call at 22:00 UTC (23:00 CET), per the company.
Wed 18 Nov: UK consumer prices for October at 07:00 UTC (08:00 CET), per the Office for National Statistics. US housing starts at 13:30 UTC (14:30 CET). Barr speaks on community development at the New York Fed at 18:35 UTC (19:35 CET). Minutes of the Fed’s 27-28 Oct meeting follow at 19:00 UTC (20:00 CET). Anthropic is expected to set its IPO price the same day, CNBC reported, citing people familiar with the plan.
Thu 19 Nov: Anthropic plans for its shares to start trading on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, The Verge reported after the company confirmed the date. Its filed range is $70 to $78 a share for 825 million shares. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson joins a discussion on economic shocks at 14:25 UTC (15:25 CET). The Senate Banking Committee holds a nomination hearing at 15:00 UTC (16:00 CET), with SEC nominees Kristin Johnson and Steven Levine among those due to appear, CoinDesk reported; see the nominations. Barr discusses artificial intelligence at 19:15 UTC (20:15 CET).
Fri 20 Nov: Deribit’s weekly options expire at 08:00 UTC (09:00 CET). Waller gives welcoming remarks at the College Fed Challenge at 13:25 UTC (14:25 CET), and Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the US economy in a global context in Santiago at 17:15 UTC (18:15 CET).

There is no Fed rate meeting this week. We are not quoting consensus forecasts for retail sales or Nvidia, because published ones differ.

Why should a chipmaker’s results and a share sale reach bitcoin at all? Both are tests of risk appetite in the same portfolios.

On 13 Nov, analysts cited by CoinDesk pointed to investor money heading into the Anthropic offering, rather than Nvidia itself, as one pressure on bitcoin. Our explainer on how bond yields affect bitcoin covers the rates side of the same question.

Friday’s expiry, strike by strike

Of the 30,985 BTC expiring on Friday, 18,810 are calls and 12,175 are puts, a put-to-call ratio of 0.65. At Deribit’s index price of $65,543 at 10:47 UTC, that is about $2.0 billion by our arithmetic, one contract being 1 BTC. Ether options expiring the same morning add 142,714 ETH, about $261 million.

A put pays if bitcoin finishes below its strike, the price written into the contract. A call pays if it finishes above. Open interest is the number of contracts still outstanding.

Friday’s book is about 8% of the 377,060 BTC of bitcoin options open on Deribit.

The calls were written for a different market. Calls at $70,000 or higher hold 17,894 BTC, 95% of all calls in this expiry.

The biggest strikes are $76,000, with 3,152 BTC, and $73,000, with 3,121 BTC. They are 16.0% and 11.4% above Sunday’s index price.

The puts are where the market now is. The largest stack is $70,000, with 1,826 BTC, which is already 6.8% above the index, so those puts are in the money.

Next come $72,000 (1,098 BTC), $65,000 (993 BTC), just 0.8% below spot, and $64,000 (969 BTC). Puts at $64,000 or lower hold 3,946 BTC.

Open interest counts contracts, not intent. A put at $65,000 could be a hedge on coins already held, one leg of a spread or an outright bet, and the data does not say which. It shows where payouts begin.

Our max-pain strike for Friday is $73,000, about 11.4% above Sunday’s index price. Max pain is the strike at which option holders as a group would collect the least if every contract were held to expiry. We calculate it from Deribit’s open interest.

It is a convention, not a magnet, and this week it sits well above spot.

The level to watch is $61,970, Sunday’s low. A daily close below it would put July’s $61,765 low in play.

Above, $66,086.7, Sunday’s high so far, is the first ceiling, and a close back above $68,236, the level bitcoin closed at on Friday, would undo most of the weekend’s damage.

The line that matters for our market mood is still $84,250, the 12 Oct high, more than 28% above the market.

A different reading

A book this lopsided can be read as relief rather than threat. Most of the calls are far out of the money and will likely expire worthless, which removes a stack of upside bets without any selling.

The puts near spot are thin by comparison: 1,962 BTC across the $64,000 and $65,000 strikes. That is not a crowd of hedgers bracing for a crash.

The bigger dates come later. Deribit’s 27 Nov monthly expiry holds 98,220 BTC, about three times Friday’s, and 25 Dec holds 146,315 BTC.

Not on the calendar

Binance’s remaining networks: Binance says it aims to restore every remaining network and asset by the end of this coming week, without saying how many are still closed; see the recovery update.
The weekly close: bitcoin’s weekly candle closes at 00:00 UTC on Monday (01:00 CET), with $61,970 the low it will carry.

Just beyond the week

Wed 25 Nov: the Fed’s Beige Book at 19:00 UTC (20:00 CET).
Thu 26 Nov: Thanksgiving, a US federal holiday. The Fed moves its daily and weekly statistical releases to Friday.
Fri 27 Nov: Deribit’s monthly expiry, the largest before Christmas.
Mon 30 Nov: the Louisiana state court hearing on the order barring prediction markets, which the CFTC has sued to block; see our report.

Mark Tuesday evening: Nvidia’s numbers land after the US close, when crypto is the only big market still trading.

As of 10:47 UTC (11:47 CET), bitcoin was trading near $65,545 on Kraken.

Related: Last week’s calendar

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.