Bitcoin falls to $65,760, lowest since 19 Aug

UPDATED 21:40 UTC, 14 Nov: Bitcoin has since broken the 19 Aug low of $64,116. It fell to $63,854.30 on Kraken in the 21:15 UTC bar, its lowest since 17 Aug, and ether touched $1,750.67. Our latest Market Read has the details.

UPDATED 20:58 UTC, 14 Nov: Bitcoin kept falling after this was written. Kraken’s low for the UTC day is now $64,450.00, set in the 20:45 UTC 15-minute bar, the weakest print since 19 Aug. The 19 Aug low of $64,116 named below has not been broken. Bitcoin was near $64,862 at 20:58 UTC, down about 4.9% on the day and about 13.2% on the week. Ether touched $1,770.54 on Kraken, its lowest since mid-July, and was near $1,790. We have no verified trigger for the extra leg down; the data are Kraken’s public API, read at the time stated.

Key points

Bitcoin dropped through its overnight low of $66,402 and printed $65,760 on Kraken, the weakest price since 19 Aug. It was near $65,855 at 14:55 UTC. Ether touched $1,837, its lowest since 3 Aug.
The first level to watch is that $65,760 low. Below it, the 19 Aug low of $64,116 is the next marker; above, $67,500 is Friday’s low, now overhead.
A daily close back above the 200-day average, near $73,036 on our Kraken count, would undo the break. Bitcoin is about 25% under its 21 Sep high of $87,447.

Nothing was scheduled. The price moved anyway.

There was no data release or central-bank event on Saturday, and we have no verified trigger for the slide. Bitcoin held between about $66,400 and $67,450 for most of the morning, then sold off after 13:45 UTC.

The 14:00 UTC hour opened at $66,786 and stood at $65,855 at 14:55 UTC. The 14:15 UTC bar traded 104 BTC on Kraken, against 8 to 65 BTC in each bar from 12:00 to 13:45 UTC. Weekend books are thin, so a burst of selling moves price further.

Where it stands

Bitcoin opened the UTC day at $68,237 and was near $65,855 at 14:55 UTC. Coinbase showed $65,851.

It opened Monday near $74,742, so the week is down about 11.9%. On our Kraken count, that would be a sixth straight weekly loss if it holds into Sunday’s close.

Ether opened at $1,928 and was near $1,851, down about 4%. Its low of $1,837 is the weakest since 3 Aug.

TokenPost, citing market data, put the total crypto market value at about $2.35 trillion, down 3.3% in 24 hours.

Put simply, when few people are trading, a modest sell order can move the price a long way, and falling prices trigger forced selling that adds to the fall.

Who got carried out

TokenPost reported $186 million of crypto liquidations in a one-hour reading at 14:34 UTC, $181 million of it longs. Ether accounted for about $61 million and bitcoin about $55 million. TokenPost did not name its data provider, so treat the figures as indicative.

Here is how a liquidation works.

On Deribit, bitcoin perpetual open interest was about $724 million at 14:55 UTC, against about $713 million at 10:43 UTC. More positions are open, not fewer.

Funding is not stretched. OKX’s bitcoin rate was about 0.005% per eight hours, barely positive, and its ether rate was about minus 0.002%, so ether shorts were paying longs.

Options traders are paying more for protection. Deribit’s DVOL index, a gauge of 30-day implied volatility, rose to 43.9 in the 14:00 UTC hour from about 40.2 on Friday afternoon.

The levels

The level to watch is $65,760. It is the day’s low, and a daily close under it would put the August lows, near $64,116, in view.

Above, $67,500 is the first resistance, then the 200-week average area near $68,000 that analysts cite. Then comes the 200-day at about $73,036.

The alternative read comes from published research. DWF Labs’ Martin Lee said a weekly break below $68,000 could put $60,000 in view, TokenPost reported. Bitget Wallet’s Lacie Zhang saw $65,000 and $62,000 as nearer support.

Neither is our call. Levels fail as often as they hold, and Sunday’s weekly close will show whether this week’s break is confirmed.

For the day before, see Friday’s US-open Market Read, and for this morning’s slide under $67,000, First Print.

As of 14:55 UTC, BTC is trading near $65,855 on Kraken. Not financial advice.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.