Ether reaches the Q4 open with a report card few expected in June: up 71.0% in the third quarter to $2,684 on Kraken, against bitcoin’s 42.8%. But the ETF bid that powered the run has turned. US spot ether funds lost $2.8 million on 29 Sep and $59.6 million on 30 Sep, according to Farside Investors, the first back-to-back outflows since mid-September. At 11:00 UTC ether trades near $2,700.
The Q4 open rundown
- What changed: A seven-day ETF inflow streak ended on 29 Sep, and 30 Sep’s redemption was the largest since 16 Sep. Fidelity’s FETH (−$26.6 million) and the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (−$25.5 million) led the outflow. Bitcoin funds also lost $148.7 million that day, so this was risk-off across the board, not a rotation out of ether. Bastien’s ETF Desk
- Why it matters: The same “smaller pond” math that magnified the inflows works in reverse. Ether funds took in about $3.1 billion between 1 Jul and 25 Sep, about 2.5 times bitcoin funds’ intake relative to each asset’s market value, CoinMarketCap calculated. A $60 million day is small against that total, but ether’s price is more sensitive to it than bitcoin’s.
- By the numbers: The ether-bitcoin ratio rose from 0.0268 at the end of June to 0.0321 at the end of September on Kraken closes, a 20% relative gain. Ether’s 20-day exponential moving average sits at about $2,619 and its 50-day simple average at about $2,436. Price is above both, and the 14-day RSI is 62: firm, not stretched.
- Where it breaks: A daily close below the 20-day average while ETFs keep redeeming would say the Q3 catch-up trade has stopped digesting and started to unwind. The macro veto is the same one capping bitcoin: the US 10-year yield closed 30 Sep near 5.29%.
Related: Monday’s Q3 scoreboard
Carry the trophy. Watch the tape.
Produced by the Crypto Watch Desk newsroom using AI tools. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.