Coin Levels is scenario analysis, not investment advice. Prices as of 16:00 UTC.
Coin Levels 1 Oct: market context
The fourth quarter opened quietly. Bitcoin moved between $83,125 and $84,436 on Kraken over the 24 hours to 16:00 UTC, its narrowest range of the week, and traded near $84,127, up 0.7% from Wednesday’s close. Wednesday’s post-PCE high of $85,604 is the near-term ceiling.
Related: Joaquín’s Q4 open read
The ETF bid paused. US spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $148.7 million on Wednesday, ending a nine-session run of inflows that began on 17 Sep, as $125.6 million left Fidelity’s FBTC and $9.5 million left IBIT, according to Farside Investors. Ether funds lost $59.6 million and Solana funds $12.5 million, Farside’s ether and Solana tables show.
Related: ETF Desk on the streak break
Derivatives stayed calm. Funding on Deribit’s bitcoin perpetual was about 0.003% per eight hours at 16:00 UTC, and DVOL edged up to about 35.9 from 35.2 a day earlier, according to Deribit’s public data. The next macro test is Friday’s US jobs report for September, due at 12:30 UTC.
All indicators use Kraken daily closes through 30 Sep. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) weights recent prices more heavily; the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is a plain average of 50 closes; the relative strength index (RSI) is a 0-100 momentum gauge.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin traded near $84,127, above its 20-day EMA at $81,956 and above its 50-day SMA at $77,270. The RSI reads 61.0, a firm but not overheated reading.
If buyers push and hold above the 24-hour high at $84,436, the price could climb toward the 30-day high at $87,447. A daily close below the 24-hour low at $83,125 would open the way to the 50-day SMA at $77,270. The bullish reading is invalidated below $77,270.
Bitcoin’s 24-hour range ran from $83,125 to $84,436, about 1.6%. It sits about 4% below its 30-day high of $87,447 and about 18% above its 200-day SMA at $71,264.
Ether price analysis
Ether changed hands near $2,682. That puts it above the 20-day EMA ($2,619) and 10% above the 50-day SMA ($2,436). The RSI stands at 62.2, a firm but not overheated reading.
If buyers push and hold above the 24-hour high at $2,720, the price could extend toward the 30-day high at $2,807. A daily close below the 24-hour low at $2,667 would bring the 50-day SMA at $2,436 into play. The constructive structure is invalidated below $2,436.
Over the past 24 hours Ether moved between $2,667 and $2,720, a 2.0% range. The 30-day high of $2,807 is about 4% away, and price is about 27% above its 200-day SMA at $2,110.
BNB price analysis
At $765.80, BNB sits just above its 20-day EMA of $756.25, with the 50-day SMA at $711.27. The RSI is 57.7, which shows neither side in control.
If buyers push and hold above the 24-hour high at $772.15, the next stop is the 30-day high at $807.14. A daily close below the 24-hour low at $762.98 would open the way to the 50-day SMA at $711.27. Below $711.27, the bullish case no longer holds.
The 24-hour range was $762.98 to $772.15 (1.2%). BNB is about 5% below its 30-day high of $807.14 and about 20% above its 200-day SMA at $635.86.
XRP price analysis
XRP traded near $1.487, above its 20-day EMA at $1.460 and above its 50-day SMA at $1.357. The RSI reads 55.8, which shows neither side in control.
If buyers push and hold above the 24-hour high at $1.514, the price could climb toward the 30-day high at $1.658. A daily close below the 24-hour low at $1.474 would open the way to the 50-day SMA at $1.357. The bullish reading is invalidated below $1.357.
XRP’s 24-hour range ran from $1.474 to $1.514, about 2.7%. It sits about 10% below its 30-day high of $1.658 and about 16% above its 200-day SMA at $1.279.
Solana price analysis
Solana changed hands near $117.33. That puts it above the 20-day EMA ($113.16) and 16% above the 50-day SMA ($101.18). The RSI stands at 61.6, a firm but not overheated reading.
If buyers push and hold above the 24-hour high at $120.50, the price could extend toward the 30-day high at $124.91. A daily close below the 24-hour low at $116.70 would bring the 50-day SMA at $101.18 into play. The constructive structure is invalidated below $101.18.
Over the past 24 hours Solana moved between $116.70 and $120.50, a 3.3% range. The 30-day high of $124.91 is about 6% away, and price is about 37% above its 200-day SMA at $85.43.
Hyperliquid price analysis
At $87.47, Hyperliquid sits just below its 20-day EMA of $88.32, with the 50-day SMA at $80.66. The RSI is 56.7, which shows neither side in control.
If buyers push and hold above the 20-day EMA at $88.32, the next stop is the 30-day high at $98.02. A daily close below the 24-hour low at $87.22 would open the way to the 50-day SMA at $80.66. Below $80.66, the bullish case no longer holds.
The 24-hour range was $87.22 to $91.83 (5.3%). Hyperliquid is about 11% below its 30-day high of $98.02 and about 46% above its 200-day SMA at $59.71.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin traded near $0.0943, above its 20-day EMA at $0.0918 and above its 50-day SMA at $0.0856. The RSI reads 56.7, which shows neither side in control.
If buyers push and hold above the 24-hour high at $0.0960, the price could climb toward the 30-day high at $0.1059. A daily close below the 24-hour low at $0.0934 would open the way to the 50-day SMA at $0.0856. The bullish reading is invalidated below $0.0856.
Dogecoin’s 24-hour range ran from $0.0934 to $0.0960, about 2.8%. It sits about 11% below its 30-day high of $0.1059 and about 7% above its 200-day SMA at $0.0879.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano changed hands near $0.2463. That puts it above the 20-day EMA ($0.2351) and 15% above the 50-day SMA ($0.2137). The RSI stands at 59.6, which shows neither side in control.
If buyers push and hold above the 24-hour high at $0.2542, the price could extend toward the 30-day high at $0.2652. A daily close below the 24-hour low at $0.2413 would bring the 50-day SMA at $0.2137 into play. The constructive structure is invalidated below $0.2137.
Over the past 24 hours Cardano moved between $0.2413 and $0.2542, a 5.4% range. The 30-day high of $0.2652 is about 7% away, and price is about 15% above its 200-day SMA at $0.2137.
Yesterday’s levels: how they held: The previous map’s bitcoin bull trigger at $85,604 was not reached (high $84,362), and the bear trigger at $82,920 held (low $83,125).
Technical levels are probabilistic and are often wrong. Do your own research; never trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
Produced by the Crypto Watch Desk newsroom using AI tools. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.