Citigroup has sharply reduced its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The bank's revised forecasts are: $112,000 for Bitcoin (down from $143,000) and $3,175 for Ethereum (down from $4,304). It reflects mounting concerns over regulatory delays and weakening on-chain activity, even as ETF demand continues to provide market support.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $69K, down more than 5% in 24 hours since the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates.
Is it safe to say that institutional optimism is cooling as US crypto legislation remains gridlocked in the Senate?
Read More: Why is Crypto Down Today?
Citi strategist Alex Saunders Cites Delay in clarity Act progress
The downgrade, detailed in a March 17 note by Citi strategist Alex Saunders, centers on stalled progress with the Clarity Act. The US crypto bill is proposed legislation aimed at establishing a market structure framework for digital assets. The bill has encountered significant hurdles in the Senate over disagreements on stablecoin rules, with a shrinking legislative window in 2026.
Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows, but the window of opportunity for US legislation this year is narrowing.
The bank assigns just a 60% probability to legislation passing in 2026, with additional risks if Democrats gain congressional seats in November's midterm elections, potentially further splintering support for crypto-friendly reforms.
The revised targets fall well below recent peaks. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, while Ethereum topped $4,900 in August. As of March 17, 2026, Bitcoin traded at approximately $74,298 and Ethereum at $2,346, levels that underscore the sharp correction from 2025 highs.
ETF Inflows Provide Floor Despite Headwinds
Despite the downgrade, Citigroup anticipates $10 billion in Bitcoin ETF demand and $2.5 billion in Ethereum ETF demand over the next 12 months. These inflows, driven by institutional adoption following spot ETF approvals in 2024, are expected to provide price support even without immediate regulatory wins.
The bank's scenarios illustrate the wide range of potential outcomes. In a recessionary environment, Bitcoin could fall to $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198. Conversely, strong end-investor demand could push Bitcoin to $165,000 and Ethereum to $4,488 under bullish conditions.
Ethereum faces particular pressure due to weak user activity metrics, though Citi notes that stablecoin growth and tokenization trends could provide offsetting support. The bank described ETH as "especially sensitive" to subdued on-chain activity.
Broader Institutional Caution
Citigroup's crypto reassessment aligns with its broader equity strategy, which has pivoted toward traditional tech plays. The bank's 2026 large-cap stock picks, which outperformed the S&P 500 last year at 27% versus 25%, notably exclude crypto-focused stocks like Coinbase or MicroStrategy. Instead, Citi favors companies such as Microchip Technology (MCHP, $80 target), Affirm Holdings (AFRM, $100 target), and Broadcom (AVGO, $480 target).
The downgrade highlights crypto's continued dependence on regulatory clarity for sustained upside. While $12.5 billion in combined ETF demand offers a floor for prices, the absence of policy catalysts limits near-term breakout potential. The political landscape remains a wild card, with midterm elections potentially reshaping the legislative environment for digital assets.