With Bitcoin currently trading at $79,820, bettors on Kalshi are pricing an 88% probability that BTC USD will reach $75,000 before climbing to $100,000 by 31 December 2026.
A stronger-than-expected US inflation report released on 12 May 2026 rattled financial markets, boosting the dollar and sending cryptocurrencies lower as traders rushed to reduce risk exposure. Responding to CPI, Bitcoin fell from nearly $82K to $80K, then to $79K. But crypto is also reacting to other macro factors. The US-Iran tensions continue to weigh heavily on Bitcoin and altcoin movements. Meanwhile, investors are holding their breath for the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting.
Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, contract titled 'Will BTC hit $75,000 before $100,000?', pays out at just 1.13x for a 'Yes' bet. This is a sign that the outcome is considered near-certain. By contrast, 'No' shares, which imply Bitcoin skips straight to $100,000, carry 12% odds and a 7.25x payout, according to Kalshi's live dashboard.
The lopsided odds reflect broad skepticism about an imminent breakout to six figures, even as Bitcoin trades within striking distance of that first milestone.
Downside bets are also active on KaLSHI
Separate Kalshi markets paint a similarly cautious picture for six-figure Bitcoin. Bettors currently price:
- 46% odds Bitcoin crosses $100,000 before January 2027
- 38% odds before October 2026
- 17% odds before July 2026
One related contract, tracking whether Bitcoin exceeds $99,999.99 by year-end, has seen its 'Yes' odds tick up 4% in the past 24 hours to 40%, offering a 150% return. That uptick follows Bitcoin's recovery from a dip below $70,000 in April.
Kalshi markets currently show 54% odds of Bitcoin bottoming at $70,000 in 2026 and 50% odds of a $65,000 low, suggesting traders are hedging against a meaningful pullback even as prices approach $75,000.
Failure at $75K resistance could trigger a collapse to $35K
Analysts are separately forecasting a sharp price drop in the second quarter, a view consistent with a Kalshi May contract that resolves 'Yes' if Bitcoin dips below $75,000 before May 31. Bitcoin's April 2024 halving cut block rewards to 3.125 BTC, historically a catalyst for price appreciation. The 2020 halving, for comparison, preceded a rally to $69,000, though that peak was followed by a prolonged bear market.
The 88% consensus that $75,000 will arrive before $100,000 suggests the market expects Bitcoin to test its current resistance level in the near term. Whether that triggers a sustained rally toward six figures or a reversal toward the $65,000–$70,000 range that bettors are also pricing in remains the central question for the remainder of 2026.